What’s the way out of Sudan’s lingering war?

By Emmanuel Onyango and Susan Mwongeli

Hopes are dashed, and families are focusing on survival as the world's worst humanitarian crisis continues to unfold in Sudan.

It's a race against time to halt one of Africa's largest countries from reaching a tipping point, and the dangers of a collapse are seemingly underestimated, according to experts.

"The warring sides have already determined that they are just going to finish this in the battlefield, which is very difficult," Tighisti Amare, Deputy Director of African Programme at Chatham House, told TRT Afrika.

"It's catastrophic; the humanitarian situation is unprecedented and it's not getting the level of attention that it should be getting, given the size and complexity of it," she said.

There are no signs yet of an end to hostilities in a war that has ravaged the country since April 2023. Recent advance by the regular army have led to the recapture of key towns from the paramilitary forces, Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced more than 11 million people, including 3.1 million who have fled the country, according to UN figures.

Mistrust between the leadership of the warring parties has seen ceasefire deals fall apart, while attempts at mediation have collapsed. This is despite international calls for an end to hostilities and opening of passages for much-needed humanitarian aid.

Putting pressure

"It's very difficult to see who would be the right people, the right countries, to mediate in this war. The most recent one in Geneva has failed, which was calling for cessation of hostilities across the whole country and enabling more humanitarian effort," observed Amare.

A path to resolving the conflict is not yet clear, but experts suggest that a key step to progress is to rein in on external backers who have been providing weapons and other support to the warring parties.

The United Nations in September said, "certain purported allies of the parties are enabling the slaughter in Sudan" without naming any of the countries or parties sending weapons to the country.

"There are some things that can be scaled, and one is the level of pressure that can be put on countries that are still selling arms to the two warring factions," said Amare.

"More pressure also needs to happen on some regional actors, who are working closely with one side or the other in trying to bring the two sides to the mediation table," she added.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical competition for influence in Sudan, experts warn that little attention has been paid to engaging civilians in order to establish a political process.

Humanitarian crisis

The conflict has caused acute hunger and disease across the country. Nearly 26 million people—around half the population—face the threat of mass starvation in what the UN says is the worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory.

While the number of people killed in the clashes is estimated to be around 27,000, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED)—a crisis-monitoring group cited by the United Nations—observers say the death toll could be much higher due to the collapse of the healthcare system in the country.

Türkiye is among countries leading efforts to send humanitarian aid to Sudan, delivering crucial supplies to the war-torn country.

‘Just peace’

"We are very thankful to Türkiye, who has been championing the humanitarian aid. They sent more than three ships in a very short time, which is more than 8,000 tonnes of medical, food, and shelter materials," Nadir Yousif Eltayeb, Sudan ambassador to Türkiye, told TRT Afrika.

"But still, I think there is a gap because more than 8 million people are displaced."

He said Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council, headed by General Abdul Fatah al-Burhan, was "very genuine and very serious" to have a lasting and peaceful solution.

But it has to be peace "based on justice," signaling an ambition to hold RSF fighters to account.

"We are very keen to have this peace as soon as possible. But the international community should condemn this militia as a terrorist militia, which has been doing a lot of unlawful things," he said.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has also repeatedly said it was willing to dialogue with the army to end the war.

However, the violence continues to escalate, fueling fears about the future of the Sudanese people, including innocent women and children, who are paying the highest price.

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