As Trump assassination attempt roils race, can Biden regain lost momentum?

By Jasmin El-Gamal

The shocking assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on Saturday has upended the 2024 election campaign at a time when the Democratic party has been divided over whether President Joe Biden should run for a second term.

The Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee, Wisconsin this week, and the Democratic National Convention is a month away. Both candidates will be positioning themselves as the only choice to lead a divided country forward.

With Trump already consolidating his party's support behind him with a defiant, yet uncharacteristically humble, tone in the last 48 hours, the question is: Can Joe Biden rally the same kind of energy from Democrats to win in November?

The Democratic party has been in flux ever since Biden's disastrous debate performance against Trump last month. His hoarse voice, delayed reaction time and confused expressions have spurred many Democratic lawmakers, pundits, and major financial donors to call for the president to step aside as the party's nominee.

But with poll numbers showing little to no impact on Biden's popularity with voters, his team has been arguing that any change to the ticket would result in more harm than good. The president himself has stated unequivocally that he will not step aside, repeating during a post-NATO press conference last week, "I beat him once, and I'll beat him again."

Not inspiring confidence

Biden's post-debate attempts at reassuring voters and shoring up confidence amongst his political and financial supporters have been marred by embarrassing gaffes, such as calling Ukrainian President "President Putin" during the NATO conference in Washington, DC, and later referring to Vice President Kamala Harris as "Vice President Trump."

Over the weekend, Biden's public remarks about the Trump assassination attempt provided an opportunity for him to demonstrate to Americans that he is strong, resolute and ready to lead the country in a different direction, as he urged the nation to reject violence and divisive political rhetoric.

But his message did not resonate with Trump supporters, who are blaming Biden himself for creating an atmosphere of fear and painting a "doomsday scenario" should Trump win the election.

In recent leaked remarks to donors, Biden spoke of the need to increase attacks on Trump's record by "putting a bulls-eye" on him. But his remarks to the nation have, for the moment, quieted down calls from within his own party for him to step aside.

With only four months until the general election and Republicans reinvigorated in their support for their candidate, continued Democratic infighting can only harm the party's chances of holding on to power come November.

Running out of time

Rather than working to unify the party's efforts against Trump, the arguments for Biden to step aside have highlighted Biden's weaknesses, as his age, mental acuity, physical health and character have been dissected for hours on end in a 24-hour news cycle.

These criticisms against Biden from his own party, as well as high-ticket donors, have provided plenty of fodder for Trump's campaign.

The former president has publicly called for Biden to stay in the race, indicating that Trump believes he has a better chance of winning against Biden than against any other Democratic candidate. Last month, Trump even called for both himself and Biden to take cognitive ability tests, "for the good of the country."

The next few days will prove critical in determining the extent to which the assassination attempt against Trump will impact the two candidates' campaigns, as well as their standing in the polls.

For his part, Trump has said that he has scrapped his planned convention speech, where he was expected to focus on attacking Biden, and will instead focus on "unity."

Due to the press coverage of the RNC and the wave of sympathy towards Trump from Republicans, the former president's favourability ratings are likely to increase, which may very well result in a bump in the polls against Biden (the latest polls before the assassination attempt placed them in a near tie).

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has cancelled several planned ads and events as the president and his advisors decide on their approach to Trump given recent events. Biden had thus far focused on attacking Trump's record and warning that a second Trump administration would pose an existential threat to American democracy.

The Biden campaign's tone will almost certainly change now, with his messaging expected to focus more on themes of unity and the rejection of political violence.

But the delay in getting that messaging out in a consistent fashion to the American public, save for Biden's remarks immediately after the attack on Trump, could prove devastating to his campaign's momentum.

The Democratic party, its lawmakers and donors will have to quickly go back to rallying around the president to stem further gains by the Trump campaign. Whether it will be too late to salvage President Biden's chances remains to be seen.

Jasmine El-Gamal is a national security analyst and former Middle East advisor at the Pentagon. She is the founder and CEO of Mindwork Strategies, LTD, a consulting firm with a mission to help organisations craft empathy-based, culturally driven approaches to foreign policy, communications and workplace mental health.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.

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