ECOWAS: The chances and hurdles of winning Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso back

Cracks in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) seem to have widened since the change of government in Niger on July 26 last year, forcing the regional bloc into troubleshooting mode to set its house in order.

The initiative to mend fences comes after a gradual erosion of support for the bloc, capped by the military government in Niger joining hands with its counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso to form the Confédération des États du Sahel, or the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

ECOWAS had been skating on thin ice for over a year, with its decision to cut electricity supply and block the borders with landlocked Niger strengthening the latter's resolve to exit the bloc with the other two military-ruled West African member states.

The activation of a standby military force for a potential intervention to restore democracy in Niger was seemingly the last straw.

Burkina Faso and Mali, which saw coups d’état in 2021 and 2022, respectively, agreed with Niger that they needed to break away from ECOWAS to form a separate bloc as a bulwark against internal and external aggression.

Although ECOWAS withdrew the sanctions in a conciliatory move later, the damage was done. AES is now a stark reality for the regional bloc to deal with.

Conciliatory mission

Since being re-elected chairperson of ECOWAS, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria has been at work to get the bloc back on track.

ECOWAS has assigned Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his Togolese counterpart Faure Gnassingbé the arduous task of wooing Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso back into the fold.

Faye, who got the job at his first ECOWAS meeting, is among the youngest leaders of the region and is seen as someone who could bring a fresh perspective to the table.

"As the chairman of ECOWAS, I am inviting you to collaborate and meet the other brothers to persuade them to return to the fold," Tinubu told Faye at a meeting in Abuja.

Since he and Gnassingbé were picked to initiate a reconciliation, Faye has already visited Mali and Burkina Faso to try to move the mission forward.

Factors for success

As the January 2025 deadline for the three breakaway states to rejoin the regional bloc nears, people have been looking at the factors that can aid the success or otherwise of the initiative to convince them that returning to ECOWAS is in everyone's interest.

Analysts believe that one of the things that could work in favour of reconciliation is the pan-Africanist and anti-imperialist voice that Faye and one of his mentors, Ousman Sonko, used in the campaign for the Senegal presidential vote this year.

"The ideological connection does exist, and is very important in such circumstances," Prof Aliou Sow, a former Senegalese minister, tells TRT Afrika.

Another crucial aspect of mutual trust is that a large percentage of Mali's trade is with Senegal.

“Senegal's commitment to support Mali militarily in its struggle against terrorist groups, as announced by (Prime Minister) Ousmane Sonko should be useful in the reconciliation mission," explains Prof Sow.

"The key factor is they need to have ECOWAS understand the context of such decisions involving the two countries."

Another thing that is likely going well for the reconciliation mission is the expertise of Faye's fellow peacemaker, Gnassingbé. The latter's relationship with some of the leaders of the AES countries and his experience in dispute resolution are seen as invaluable in the present circumstances.

“Even though young, he is viewed as a senior statesman of the region who promotes peaceful relations," says Prof Sow.

Potential roadblocks

According to Issoufou Boubacar Kado Magagi, an analyst based in Niamey, one of the challenges is the perception among some that the regional bloc leans towards Western powers, especially France.

Magagi points out that several Western delegates attended the last ECOWAS summit, suggesting they have a role to play in the bloc's stance.

"Times have changed. In African countries, young people don't accept this war of attrition that uses some African leaders to push the Western agenda," Magagi tells TRT Afrika.

Analysts like him also believe that ECOWAS's mission would have a more positive impact by offering to compensate businesses that suffered losses due to sanctions imposed by the bloc.

"When the borders were closed, we had a lot of goods stuck at Cotonou port. Businesses lost millions of CFA francs. Nobody is talking about compensating them," says Magagi.

Recipe for success

Despite the hurdles in front of the two heads of state spearheading the reconciliation mission, there is hope that the duo can forestall the complete exit of the AES countries from ECOWAS with certain steps.

According to analysts, one of such measures is to continue to replace pressure and tough talk with dialogue and concessions that would benefit both sides.

“I think that Faye can develop a double-pronged diplomatic strategy – he deals with ECOWAS leaders and his PM (Ousmane Sonko) with the juntas," Prof Sow tells TRT Afrika.

The August 12 visit of Sonko to Mali is seen as a step in this direction.

Some analysts believe visits by representatives of countries with a shared disregard for Western hegemony, especially that of former colonial powers like France, are a necessary part of the effort to thaw frosty relations between the three countries and ECOWAS.

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