Ghana polls: Floating voters keep presidential frontrunners guessing

By Susan Mwongeli

Twelve candidates, a politically aware electorate, and a nation bursting with expectations.

As Ghana prepares to vote in the presidential election scheduled for December 7, the final lap of the race is narrowing down to a battle between two familiar faces.

The successor to President Nana Akufo-Addo, who is in his second and final term in office, will likely be one among the two nominees of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).

The spotlight is on NPP's Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the West African nation's current Vice President, and NDC's John Dramani Mahama, who has already had a stint in the presidential office from July 24, 2012, to January 7, 2017.

Dr Bawumia, an Oxford-educated economist-politician known for his digital transformation initiatives, is campaigning on the twin planks of economic revitalisation and technological advancement.

His tenure as Vice President has been marked by strides in digitisation, although he faces criticism over the current administration's handling of economic challenges.

In February, Dr Bawumia spoke publicly about rebuilding what he said was a "weakened" economy.

"When we assumed office in 2017, we were confronted with an economy with declining economic growth, along with several problems and challenges. Notwithstanding the difficult economy we inherited, we had to get on with it and start to fix the problems," he said in an address to the nation.

Eleven months later, NPP's poll slogan — "Breaking the eight" — unambiguously represents the party's confidence in aspiring to go beyond President Akufo-Addo's two terms of four years each to reach a third mandate.

Rival to reckon with

But there are enough indications that this would be far from a walk in the park for the ruling party.

As Mahama of the opposition NDC puts it, "The beauty of democracy is that it gives us the opportunity every four years to make a change".

Counted among Ghana's most experienced politicians, NDC's 1958-born nominee from Damongo in the country's northern region has a bachelor's degree in history and previously worked as a secondary school teacher.

Mahama's political career spans multiple roles, including MP, deputy minister, minister for communications, and Vice President.

He became Ghana's President in July 2012, following the death of his predecessor, John Atta Mills, and went on to win the presidential election five months later.

In 2016, he lost his re-election bid to Akufo-Addo, then the leading opposition candidate.

Race of small margins

Prof G Etse Sikanku of Ghana's University of Media, Arts & Communication (UniMAC) sees the two frontrunners in the presidential battle as being on an even keel ahead of the vote that will decide their political future and the country's direction.

"Both are well known within Ghana's political system. Mahama is building his campaign around the promise of a reset for Ghana and talking about a '24-hour economy'. Dr Bawumia is predicating his campaign on the current dispensation's infrastructure record," he tells TRT Afrika.

"His calling card is blue-economy digitisation. He believes digital technology is the tool of choice to transform the country."

Born in Tamale in Ghana's north, Dr Bawumia has a PhD in economics. Before going into politics, he worked at the Bank of Ghana, the country's central bank, and rose to become its deputy governor.

One of the primary risks to Dr Bawumia's quest for the presidency, ironically, stems from economic setbacks.

He and NPP stand to be held accountable for rising debt and a worsening cost-of-living crisis that is fuelling public frustration.

Some analysts doubt he can offer a fresh vision for the West African country.

Nonetheless, NPP's campaign has focused on economic transformation, promising initiatives such as reducing taxes, introducing affordable university education, and starting a national airline.

"Dr Bawumia is also talking about training young people in digital skills because a huge population demands jobs. He has promised various policies that he and his campaign team believe will help lift the country from where we are now," Accra-based Asaase Radio's political editor, Wilberforce Asare, tells TRT Afrika.

For Mahama, "relatability" is the driving force of his outreach towards voters.

"Many people talk about his competencies, but what works is also the ability to communicate his vision and commitment to a social democratic system.

He has also built his campaign around experience, reminding people that he has been President before and knows what it's like to be in that office," says Prof Sikanku.

During his term as President before Akufo-Addo took over, Mahama prioritised infrastructural development.

Economy at the epicentre

However, the gold-rich country faced the challenges of economic stagnation and power shortages.

This even earned him the unflattering nickname "Dumsor", meaning "off and on" in the local dialect.

In his comeback bid, Mahama hopes the electorate will buy into his renewed promise of rebuilding the economy and creating more jobs.

Asare sees that as a challenge. "He may be facing some difficulty articulating to the Ghanaian people exactly what he means by a 24-hour economy," he says.

NPP and NDC have dominated Ghana's politics since the country gained independence from the colonial British regime in 1957.

This election is no exception. Both parties rely on their respective strongholds for votes and scramble to woo the fence-sitters.

"In our country, you require '50+1' to win an election. To do that, you need to get the floating voters over to your side," Asare tells TRT Afrika.

"They comprise the bloc whose informed assessment of the candidates' promises will decide which way the mandate swings."

If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates.

Over to the voter.