Key political and security trends that could shape the Sahel region in 2024

By Mubarak Aliyu

2023 has been a tumultuous year in the Sahel region, with the July 26 coup in Niger taking the centre stage in the political events which will perhaps define the trajectory of what is to come in 2024.

With a specific focus on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, here are the top three political and security trends to look out for in the Sahel Region in 2024.

ECOWAS and regional cooperation

As the coup in Niger unfolded, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) adopted an unusual approach, threatening to invade Niger and forcefully reinstate the ousted President Mohammed Bazoum.

The division within ECOWAS reached a new height when Mali and Burkina Faso - both junta-led countries - announced that any military intervention against Niger would be considered an act of war against their own countries.

This declaration effectively marked the division of ECOWAS between mainly coastal countries and the three landlocked countries in the Sahel.

This division became apparent when on 16 September, the military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter which established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The AES was formed with the primary purpose of fostering economic and security alliances between the three countries.

While the AES is centred on defence in the short term, tensions between the three countries and ECOWAS could see the AES develop into a stronger force within the wider bloc, which is likely to make negotiations for a democratic transition more difficult.

Furthermore, ECOWAS sanctions have caused significant hardship in Niger, with detrimental repercussions reaching border communities in neighbouring Nigeria.

This has crippled a robust cross-border economy along the extensive Nigeria-Niger border, disrupted livelihoods, worsened humanitarian challenges, and put at risk major infrastructure and gas projects that could enhance regional trade.

Indeed, it is in the interest of ECOWAS to navigate concrete diplomatic solutions to the crisis with the AES countries, considering the essential role the AES countries play in preventing the spread of terrorism to the coastal states in West Africa.

Anti-France sentiments

A key trend in the Sahel and wider West Africa region to look out for in 2024 will be how countries put measures in place to prevent more military coups.

There are still economic, insecurity factors as well as anti-France sentiments which are believed to be some of the triggers of the string of coups and attempted coups experienced in the region in past three years.

Recent anti-France sentiments in the region have also become lead determinants in political response to upcoming security trends in the region.

Attempts by Western nations to counter growing Russia’s influence in the Sahel will remain a major factor in terms of foreign policy.

With the economic challenges stemming from global inflation and food shortages, military officers in some countries are likely to exploit frustrations among local populations to stage new coups.

As militant attacks and wider insecurity continue, the political situation in several countries could remain fluid in some countries in the region.

Mali situation

In addition to fighting terrorism, Mali has seen a resurgence of a secessionist movement from the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), which is a coalition of predominantly Touareg rebels in the Northern regions of the country.

The CMA fighters initiated a rebellion in 2012 but later signed a peace agreement with the state in 2015.

However, tensions reignited after the United Nations withdrew its decade-long peacekeeping mission from key towns in Mali in June.

On November 14, the Malian army announced that it had retaken control of the strategic town of Kidal in the Kidal region from CMA fighters after three days of intense conflict.

The recapture of the town signalled an effective dissolution of the peace accord since the town of Kidal has been a strategic stronghold for the CMA.

In addition to this, transitional president Assimi Goita said security operations were ongoing.

The insecurity and efforts to address are likely to play a major role determining the landscape of Mali and several countries in the region in 2024.

Although 2024 looks generally uncertain for the Sahel region, diplomatic solutions, especially regional cooperation remain key in overcoming the political and security challenges of the region and indeed the entire African continent.

The author, Mubarak Aliyu, is a Political and Security Risk Analyst who specialises on West Africa and the Sahel Region.