The Ankara Declaration is a new model for conflict resolution in Africa

By Ahmet Yusuf Ozdemir

Last month, Ankara hosted a historic meeting between two key strategic actors in the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia and Somalia. Both countries have had a diplomatic yet chaotic relationship for nearly three decades.

The Türkiye-mediated "historic reconciliation" between Somalia and Ethiopia represents a significant advancement in conflict management, setting Ankara's diplomacy and foreign policy apart from global powers such as the United States, China, and the European Union.

Previously, the Horn of Africa region in general and the conflict in Somalia, to be more specific, led countries to invest in humanitarian aid or military to undermine Al Shabab. Soon, it became evident that this conflict could not be resolved without taking into account neighbouring Ethiopia.

This is key to what makes Türkiye’s approach unique. It operated on the premise that as long as animosity between the two African countries was present, there wouldn't be any firm, persistent solutions to the crisis.

According to a report from the Geneva Academy, Africa comes second only to the Middle East in terms of armed conflicts per region.

The continent currently suffers from more than 35 non-international armed conflicts, including in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.

Multiple armed factions are engaged in these conflicts, either opposing government forces or battling amongst themselves. Western powers and neighbouring nations have intervened in the non-international armed conflicts occurring in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Somalia.

Compared to other cases of civil wars around the world, such as in Colombia, the Philippines, or Afghanistan, conflicts in Africa are rarely resolved through peace negotiations and settlements. This could change as Somalia and Ethiopia have finally agreed to tackle their differences.

Under the Ankara Declaration, the two nations will start negotiations no later than February, with the facilitation of Türkiye, and to be concluded and signed in four months.

"The deal between the two neighbours (Somalia and Ethiopia) has now calmed fears of a wider regional conflict in the Horn of Africa," writes Emmanuel Onyango and Tuğrul Oğuzhan Yılmaz for TRT Afrika. "The United Nations, African Union (AU) and a regional bloc in East Africa, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), welcomed the pact and congratulated Türkiye for its mediation efforts."

Somalia's challenges

In Somalia, Al Shabab plays a vital role in making the Horn of Africa one of the most conflict-prone regions. Additionally, the presence of numerous global actors in the country, primarily the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and the United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS), makes the conflict, in a sense, comparable to the example of US-Taliban relations.

Somalia remains one of the most essential focal points of the post-Cold War international system. It was one of the first laboratories of the humanitarian intervention discourse that rose with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In 1991, the process that began with the collapse of the Siad Barre regime after holding power since 1969, soon plunged the country into an internal conflict. This war between tribes and warlords was met with regional as well as global action.

In particular, UN peacekeeping efforts and the United States Army's "humanitarian relief" operations broke up the conflict in 1992. However, this intervention created its own set of problems.

It is crucial to keep in mind the almost chronic ineffectiveness of the international community in helping a nation rebuild itself. Going back to Afghanistan, after the invasion of the Soviet Union, the US supported the Afghan resistance to defeat the invaders. But when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, so did the US.

Post-conflict reconstruction, transformation, and transitional justice mechanisms, meaning how societies respond to the legacies of massive and serious human rights violations, were not established in Somalia or Afghanistan.

Filling the gap

The power vacuum that was left after the withdrawal of the UN and the US from Somalia in the '90s was filled by regional state and non-state actors. Somalia's western neighbour Ethiopia mainly played an essential role after 1996 by initiating cross-border incursions.

In 2005, the Islamic Courts Union, which had established a sphere of influence for itself, defeated the warlords in 2006 and declared its power in Somalia, which led to a new intervention by Ethiopia in the country.

Ethiopia, supported politically by the US and militarily by Uganda, together with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the Federal Transitional Government, maintained its dominance until 2009.

That same year, Al Shabab took advantage of the power vacuum created by Ethiopia's withdrawal from the country and imposed its form of governance, maintaining control over the southern part of the country. Ever since its foundation and especially after the announcement of the pledge of allegiance to Al Qaeda in 2012, Al Shabab became the number one target of the United States' 'War on Terror' in the region.

After 18 years of mass atrocities inside Somalia, as well as neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia, Al Shabab witnessed military defeat, retreat as well as re-grouping. Stig Jarle Hansen, one of the leading experts on Al Shabab, argues that illegal taxation, communal rivalries, army weaknesses, and the existence of safe areas have been some of the key elements for Al Shabab's persistence.

Domestic, regional, and global experiences can help law enforcement to halt the rise of Al Shabab in the Horn of Africa. The United Nations Office of Rule of Law and Security Institutions, established within the Department of Peace Operations, has a section under its mandate named disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration.

The main objective of this process is to contribute to security and stability in post-conflict environments so that recovery and development can begin. This was applied to the conflicts in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Burundi, Colombia, Ethiopia, Haiti, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia.

One of the most famous examples of this is Mukhtar Robow, former deputy leader and spokesman of Al Shabab, who left the group in 2015 and was appointed the Minister of Religious Affairs of Somalia. Examples such as these need to be expanded to underline the fact that Al Shabab's way of challenging the state and disrupting peace in the region cannot go on.

Ankara Declaration

The Ankara Declaration that was announced between Somalia and Ethiopia lays the groundwork for similar future negotiations to fight against Al Shabab since both countries are targets and victims of this movement and have significant experience in this field.

The official statement by the Republic of Türkiye’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared "They agreed, within a spirit of friendship and mutual respect, to forgo and leave behind differences and contentious issues and forge ahead in a cooperative manner to pursue shared prosperity."

Strong and durable peace can only occur with a holistic approach rather than with one country struggling on its own. Experience, intelligence, and know-how sharing are key for any conflict to come to an end.

This was one of the key operational failures of negotiations between the US and Taliban in Afghanistan. Even though the United States was not operating on its own in Afghanistan but with an international coalition since 2001, it didn't involve other parties for a sustainable peace that would benefit everyone in the region.

Compared to the US's approach, Türkiye's initiative to end a decades-long crisis by allowing parties involved to sit at the same table to discuss the challenges ahead is something that the Horn of Africa region has been waiting for.

The author, Ahmet Yusuf Ozdemir, is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Relations Department at Ibn Haldun University.