What did Israel's recent assassinations actually accomplish?

By Jasmine El-Gamal

Following Israel's assassination of Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran in the early hours of July 31, the Middle East is once again bracing itself for the fallout.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed "severe punishment" against what he calls the "Zionist regime." Meanwhile, the United States said it was not aware of the attack beforehand.

Given the heightened state of tensions in the Middle East following the October attacks on Israel and the country's subsequent war on Gaza, Haniyeh's assassination could be viewed in one of two ways: either as a power move by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure he can end the war on a "victory" note, boosting his dismal ratings at home; or as a sign of Israel's increasing weakness and isolation.

A review of the regional context suggests the latter is more likely.

Military escalation

Haniyeh was part of the Hamas negotiating team for a ceasefire and hostage deal. His death at the hands of the other party to the conflict, Israel, is likely to further harden Hamas' position and delay a resolution to the talks, or worse, shut them down altogether.

In a press conference after the assassination, Netanyahu did not mention the incident but said he will continue the war and not give into domestic or international pressure to end it prematurely.

The prime minister also said Israel was prepared for any scenario that might unfold, suggesting he has no intention of either conceding in the ceasefire talks or winding down a war that has so far cost tens of thousands of Palestinian lives and those of at least 70 hostages.

Israel now faces the risk of military escalation—both Iran and Hamas have vowed retaliation for Haniyeh's death and in Lebanon, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group would avenge Israel's July 29 assassination of top military commander, Fuad Shukr.

It is also unlikely that assassinating leadership figures of organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah without addressing the root causes of their existence and appeal would actually weaken the groups' resolve, capabilities and popular support.

While individual leaders are replaceable, causes are not quick to die.

Call for calm

Meanwhile, other countries have been quick to call for calm, with Japan's deputy United Nations representative warning during an urgent UN meeting following Haniyeh and Shukr's assassinations that the region could be at "the brink of an all-out war."

In the same meeting, Britain's UN ambassador called for a renewed peace process, saying that "the path to peace must be through diplomatic negotiations" and that "long-term peace will not be secured by bombs and bullets."

And the deputy US ambassador to the UN said the US would "continue to work hard to prevent a broader regional war that starts with finalising an agreement for an immediate ceasefire with the release of the hostages in Gaza."

The current tense standoff between Israel and Iran comes just three months after the two countries had already pushed the region closer to an all-out war.

On April 1, Israel targeted an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, killing a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander, which led to an unprecedented Iranian attack five days later involving more than 300 missiles and drones launched towards Israel from Iran, Iraq and Yemen.

Dangerous cycle

Despite all parties stating throughout the last 10 months that they do not want to start a regional war, every cycle of attack-counterattack-repeat increases the risk of a tragic miscalculation that will set the Middle East aflame.

Should that happen, it is not difficult to imagine a scenario where the situation escalates beyond control, putting millions of innocent people in the region in extreme danger.

The ball is now in Iran's court. While it is certain Khamenei and Iran's partners in the region will respond in some way to Israel's twin assassinations, they can choose to do so in a manner that is limited and controlled.

A response should be significant enough for Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah to save face while not going so far as to draw Israel in further. Whether they can strike that balance remains to be seen.

Now, more than ever, it is imperative for cooler heads to prevail, and for external powers to work with the parties involved to step back from the brink and spare the region's already exhausted and traumatised population from further suffering.

Israeli leaders must come to terms with the fact that no number of military offensives will make their country and people safer or more secure in the long-term.

Absent a commitment to a political pathway to peace, it can only grow weaker and ever more isolated.

The alternative is simply too dangerous to consider.

The Author, Jasmine El-Gamal is a national security analyst and former Middle East advisor at the Pentagon. She is the founder and CEO of Mindwork Strategies, LTD, a consulting firm with a mission to help organisations craft empathy-based, culturally driven approaches to foreign policy, communications and workplace mental health.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.

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