Would Netanyahu's departure change Israel's policy toward Gaza?

By Hamzah Rifaat

It's time to reset Israel's government and hold new elections, because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a "major obstacle" to peace in the Middle East.

These recent remarks were made - shockingly - by US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish American in the government.

His comments come as calls for Israeli elections grow louder both in the United States and within Israel itself. Expectedly, Netanyahu has dismissed calls for early elections and met Schumer's criticism with vitriol, stating that Israel is not a "banana republic."

The truth however is that Netanyahu’s popularity is plummeting both at home and abroad. One sign of this is that Washington and Ottawa are holding talks with war cabinet member and Netanyahu rival Benny Gantz instead.

But would Netanyahu's departure change Israel's policy on Gaza?

Understanding the answer will require taking a closer look at what's unfolding inside of Israel. It is evident that public opinion has turned against Netanyahu, with only 15 percent of Israelis expressing a desire for him to remain in office after the war ends. However, ultra-Orthodox, far-right and nativist parties allied with Likud have made significant gains in the recently-held 2024 municipal elections.

At the same time, so-called leftist parties such as Meretz with their central figurehead Yair Golan have called for the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and weaponisation of starvation in a bid to revitalise their political careers.

While gains at the local level for Likud and its allies might not reflect what's happening at the national level, what is certain is that Israel’s policymaking on Gaza regardless of whoever is in power, will remain the same.

Take the future prospects of war cabinet minister Benny Gantz. Gantz, who has held a lead in the polls ahead of the national elections that Netanyahu has repeatedly refused to call. Thousands of protestors in Tel Aviv have also demanded that Gantz ditch the Netanyahu coalition and withdraw his support for the PM.

According to the Lazar Research Institute’s poll for the Israeli daily newspaper Maariv, 49 percent of respondents surveyed expressed confidence in Gantz as the leader of the National Unity Party and as a prospective prime minister. Only 28 percent believed that Netanyahu should keep his job.

Gantz's frequent trips to Canada and the United States with host countries granting him an audience in place of Netanyahu also indicates that he is the preferred candidate among Western allies.

But here lies the catch: The departure of Netanyahu and the arrival of Gantz won’t solve Palestine's problems - but could prolong it. Gantz is not a peacenik or a dove.

He represents a faction of Israeli politics which calls for the maintenance of the status quo. This would entail strengthening illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, considering the Jordan Valley to be Israel’s de facto border, fostering a close alliance with the US to benefit from annual contributions worth $3.8 billion toward Israel’s burgeoning military budget and continuing the genocide in Gaza.

Gantz might be touted in some circles as a more moderate figure in the war cabinet, but his ideology is still similar to Netanyahu's.

This is a reality that US President Joe Biden's administration fails to recognise. Washington's choice to engage with Gantz instead of Netanyahu cannot detract from the fact that resolving the conflict lies in championing and implementing Palestinian statehood, ending the occupation, revoking the proliferation of settlements and guaranteeing the Palestinian right to return.

Recall that at the Conference for Presidents in West Jerusalem in February, Gantz rejected Palestinian statehood and stated that the war in Gaza must continue in the absence of peace which can be contemplated about later. While he may be a rational alternative to Netanyahu, Gantz does promote the latter’s policy which does not bode well for the status quo in Gaza.

Biden administration officials also admitted that meetings with Gantz resulted in tough conversations, with the war cabinet member not budging on Israel's intentions to restrict humanitarian aid and attack Rafah.

This demonstrates that Washington's approach of reaching out to Netanyahu’s opponent as a palatable figure, while keeping military aid and unequivocal support for Israel intact, is a controversial and cosmetic one.

Biden's unwillingness to halt military aid while seeking to undercut Netanyahu comes as 52 percent of Americans disapprove of the United States sending weapons to Israel until the latter stops its attacks on Gaza.

Beyond Gantz are other realities in Israel which can reinforce the status quo regardless of whether Netanyahu departs. According to a poll from the Israeli Democracy Institute, the Jewish Power Party headed by far-right national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir will be the only party among the current government’s coalition partners to succeed in cementing its electoral presence.

Ben Gvir’s success is due to his polarising and divisive rhetoric, calls for exterminating Palestinians and distribution of weapons during the war.

It is clear that Netanyahu’s exit as called for by Chuck Schumer will not change Israel’s Gaza policy. The problem lies in the very nature of the Israeli state, its political orientations and continuous calls for withholding Palestinian rights.

Put simply, Netanyahu’s departure would not solve the Palestinians' problem.

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