Assad ya tafi, shin sansanonin na nan?

Daga Salman Niyazi

A lokacin da labarin rushewar gwamnatin Bashar al-Assad ya bazu a duniya, masana da dama sun yi gaggawar watsi da batun zaman sojojin Rasha a Syria.

Filin jirgin sama na Khmeimim da tashar jiragen ruwa ta Tartus- wanda shi ne kaɗai wani mallaki na Rasha na kayan aikin soja a wajen tsohuwar USSR-da alama su ma kaddarar da ta samu gwamnatin da ta rushe ta same su. Hotunan tauraron dan adam da ke nuna jami'an sojan Rasha sun yi gaggawar tattara kayan aiki a Khmeimim sun tabbatar da wannan hasashen.

Wannan rushewar ta gwamnati ta je wa Moscow a matsayin ba-zata, wanda hakan ya jawo wani sauyi a yanayin yadda ake watsa labarai da kuma martani daga hukumomi. Wani labari da aka wallafa a ranar 9 ga watan Disamba a tashar Channel One ta Rasha ya bayyana lamarin:

“Yayin da sauyin mulki ya zo a matsayin ba-zata, babban abin mamaki shi ne yadda gwamnatin Syria da sojojinta suka yi saranda.” Shi kansa Shugaba Vladimir Putin ya ƙara wa wannan batun karsashi a lokacin da yake wani jawabi wanda ya saba yin sa a duk shekara inda ya bayyana cewa “Aleppo ta faɗa hannun mayaƙa 350, inda dakarun gwamnatin 30,000 da kuma dakarun da ke mara wa Iran baya sun janye ba tare da faɗa ba.”

Sai dai Putin ya yi gaggawa inda ya yi watsi da batun da ake yi na cewa an ci Rasha da yaƙi. Ya kafe a kan cewa Moscow “ta cim ma burinta da buƙatunta” a Syria, inda ta daƙile kafa “gwamnatin Muslunci” da kuma hana ‘yan ta’adda ƙwace mulki.

Haka kuma, ya jaddada cewa bai kamata a ayyana sabuar gwamnatin da ke Damascus a matsayin ta ‘yan ta’adda ba – wanda hakan wata matsaya ce da shugaban ya ɗauka ta siyasa da ke nuna muhimmanci a yarjejeniyar da ka iya zuwa a nan gaba.

A ranar 20 ga watan Disamba, an samu labarin cewa Kanal Janar Nikolai Yuryev ya sauka a matsayinsa na shugaban tattara bayanan sirri na FSB.

A wata tattaunawa da ya yi da kamfanin dillancin labarai na Rasha TASS a 2018, Yuryev ya bayyana babban dalilin zaman dakarunsa a Syria a matasyin tabbatar da tsaron sararin sansanonin sojin saman Rasha. Yuryev ya bar Syria a daidai lokacin da ake cikin rashin tabbas game da makomar sojojin Rasha a yankin.

A ɗayan ɓangaren Ministan Tsaron Turkiyya Yasar Guler ya bayyana cewa bai ga alamun janyewar Rasha baki ɗaya ba. Kamar yadda ya bayyana, Rasha tana hada kadarorinta na soji daga sassa daban-daban na kasar zuwa sansanoni biyu—sansanin sojin sama na Khmeimim da ke Latakia da kuma na sojojin ruwa a Tartus.

Yayin da Moscow ta kwashe wasu jami'an diflomasiyya, jami'an diflomasiyyar Rasha sun tattauna a asirce kan yiwuwar janyewar soji gaba daya, Assad da kansa ya yi gudun hijira ta Khmeimim tare da taimakon Rasha a ranar 8 ga watan Disamba, bayan durkushewar wuraren soji na karshe na gwamnatinsa.

Ana ƙara samun bayanai masu sarƙaƙiya a bayan fage. Kamar yadda jaridar Economist ya ruwaito, ana sa ran gudanar da tattaunawa mai ƙarfi tsakanin Rasha da Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), wanda shi ne babban mai faɗa a ji a gwamnatin ta Syria. Sai dai abin mamaki HTS yana nuna sassauci mai ban mamaki game da ci gaba da kasancewar sojojin Rasha.

"Babu jan layi: wannan ya dogara ne akan bukatu, ba akida ba," in ji wata majiyar HTS da take da masaniya kan tattaunawar. Kungiyar ba ta yanke hukuncin ci gaba da rike sansanonin Rasha ba kuma a shirye take ta mutunta yarjejeniyar shekaru 49 da Rasha ta yi na hayar tashar jiragen ruwa ta Tartus, wacce aka sanya wa hannu a cikin 2017.

Yanayin yadda lamura suka juya na iya zama kamar abin ban mamaki, ganin yadda Rasha ta dade tana goyon bayan Assad. Duk da haka, bincike na kusa yana nuna muhimman dabaru. Sabbin hukumomin Syria na fuskantar wani rudani mai sarkakiya. Suna buƙatar amincewa da ƙasashen duniya, tare da yadda warewar Taliban a Afganistan ya zama gargaɗi ga HTS. Tsayar da sansanonin Rasha na iya zama hanyar sasantawa don amincewa da diflomasiyya daga Moscow, musamman yayin da kasashen Yamma suka yi taka-tsan-tsan da gwamnatin da HTS — la’akari da alakar Al-Qaeda da ta gabata — ke taka rawar gani.