Ruto, Raila alliance: Will it cool off the heat in Kenya?

The possibility of President William Ruto and his arch-rival Raila Odinga collaborating in government seemed next to impossible for many, but some political analysts saw it coming.

In an effort to stabilise his embattled administration, Ruto nominated four prominent opposition figures from Odinga's camp into his cabinet on Wednesday last yet.

The new opposition-allied cabinet nominees are John Mbadi (finance), James Opiyo Wandayi (energy and petroleum), Hassan Ali Joho (mining and blue economy) and Wycliffe Oparanya (cooperatives and micro, small, and medium enterprises development).

Prof. Macharia Munene, a history lecturer at the United States International University-Africa, said the alliance was not surprising but was expedited by the Gen-Z agitation.

"It is a political survival strategy that will give the president some leeway or manoeuvring space before deciding what follows thereafter. This would depend on how the members of parliament behave in the next two or so weeks, as they do their job of vetting the nominees," Munene tells TRT Afrika.

What started off as anti-tax hike sentiments snowballed into weeks of violent protests, resulting in at least 50 deaths and widespread damage of property.

"The opposition would have very much wanted to be the face of the agitation, but they had nothing to do with it, this time around,'' Munene says.

He believes the recent events in Kenya put the opposition in an unfamiliar territory.

"They wish they would have been the ones to take credit for the successful protest. Now, they have to find ways of shifting the spotlight from Gen-Zs," Munene adds.

Opposition swallowed?

With the largest opposition party having been co-opted into government, the key question remains, who will keep the government in check?

Political pundits believe after the recent protests, there will be some restraint in Kenya's politics and governance, with or without a vibrant opposition political party.

"The Gen-Zs showed a way of keeping the government in check," Munene notes, adding that it is the obligation of every citizen to raise concerns when things are going wrong.

Members of parliament, whether in opposition or in the ruling party, are elected to represent the people, and not the government, Munene emphasises.

"So when the members of parliament fail in their obligation to represent the interests of the people, then the citizens have a right to exercise that mandate and the Gen-Zs have been doing that, to a point where the political class is very worried because they are losing power to unelected people," Munene observes.

For political survival, burying of the hatchets became necessary. "They have to find a way of defusing this movement."

Now that the Kenyan government and a major opposition side are reading from the same script, would the concerns raised by the youth get a proper response?

"One would say tensions would cool a little bit, but it would be a mistake to assume that it is over, because if the issues are not addressed, then there will be reason for people to continue (with the agitation)," Munene notes.

Eyes on parliament

Members of parliament will be under intense scrutiny this time around as they vet the new cabinet nominees.

After the June 25 debacle, in which parliament was overrun by angry protesters shortly after it passed a controversial bill approving a raft of tax hikes, analysts believe MPs will now be trying to prove they are dependable.

"Parliament is being tested again," Macharia reckons, adding: "If they (MPs) show that they are just a rubber stamp, then it might be a good reason for the return of the momentum of saying 'no, this cannot be'."

The next two weeks, he says, may be crucial to what happens next.

Political frenemies

President Ruto and opposition leader Odinga's relationship is a perfect definition of bitter-sweet.

They had been close political allies for years with Ruto being a staunch backer of Odinga's bid to become Kenyan during the 2007 elections.

After the elections, Odinga then-opposition candidate, rejected the presidential elections results that gave the then-incumbent President Mwai Kibaki a victory. And post-election violence broke out leading to the deaths of more than 1000 people.

Internationally-brokered talks culminated in the formation of a government of national unity which both Ruto and Odinga joined with Odinga becoming prime minister.

However, relations between the two politicians started to turn frosty after, in 2010, the International Criminal Court indicted William Ruto along with several other Kenyan politicians over the deadly violence. Odinga was not among those indicted.

In 2013, Ruto joined hands with opposition presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta, who was also battling an ICC indictment. The ICC later dropped the charges against both Ruto and Uhuru.

After Uhuru defeated Odinga in the elections, he named Ruto as vice president.

Kenyatta, however, later invited Odinga to his government, which apparently infuriated deputy president Ruto.

Ruto contested the 2022 presidential elections against the wish of his boss, Uhuru, who was backing Odinga's presidential bid.

Ruto, whose family had no national political history, vowed to end Kenya's ''political dynasties'', referring to the families of Uhuru and Odinga, who have strong political roots.

He defeated Odinga by a slim margin in the August 9, 2022 presidential election. Since then, they had been fierce political foes.

The relationship of the political frenemies has however come full circle with President Ruto's latest move to spare plum cabinet positions for Odinga's lieutenants.