South Africa elections 2024: Why it's a make-or-break election for the rainbow nation

By Charles Mgbolu

South Africans go to the hustings on May 29 in an election being billed as the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party's toughest test yet since the rainbow nation emerged out of apartheid three decades ago.

The independent Electoral Commission of South Africa announced in March that a 27.79 million-strong electorate is eligible to cast their votes in the national and provincial polls, the highest since the dawn of democracy in the country.

"The highlight of the certified rolls is the increase in the representation rate of people in the age cohort of 18–39 years. This age band accounts for 42% (or 11.7 million) of voters on the rolls," chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo noted.

Analysts see this as a striking piece of data that could determine the country's future.

Many young people say their primary source of concern among the current government's challenges is the high unemployment rate, which has adversely impacted them the most.

The numbers bear out their concern. According to data collated by the online statistics portal Statista, South Africa currently has the highest number of unemployed people on the continent.

Old poll plank

The ANC swept the general elections of 2019, riding its campaign promise of "Grow South Africa together". Number one on their manifesto was "jobs, decent jobs".

"Transforming the economy to serve all people, through interventions that promote a developmental growth path to create more jobs and decent jobs," the ruling party's 2029 manifesto stated.

Five years down the line, South Africa's unemployment numbers have surged.

Data released by the government agency Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) in May pegged the number of unemployed South Africans at more than 8.2 million during the first quarter of 2024.

The unemployment rate surged by 32.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest figure since comparable records began in 2008.

This has led to frustration for many South Africans.

"Whoever is at the helm of affairs after the elections must tackle the high level of unemployment, particularly among the youth. You want to see young people integrated into the economy, earning a decent living, and becoming taxpayers," Tebogo Mokubung, an amateur athlete and sports presenter, tells TRT Afrika.

Stats SA echoes this sentiment, saying young people are "vulnerable in the labour market", with those aged 15 to 34 bearing the brunt.

"The first quarter of 2024 results show that the total number of unemployed youth increased by 236 000 to 4.9 million. This increased the youth unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points, from 44.3% in Q4 2023 to 45.5% in Q1 2024," states the agency's May report.

Nhlanganiso Sabelo, a Johannesburg resident, believes that job opportunities should be matched with initiatives for skill development to increase the employment potential of young South Africans.

"I want the next government to not just focus on jobs but create platforms that target training in skills. If young people do not have skills in diverse fields, be they formal or informal, then what are the chances of getting employed or starting a business that employs others?" Sabelo wonders.

Jaji Abolore, a nightclub owner in Sandton, couldn't agree more.

"Investing in free education and vocational training programmes tailored to current market needs can equip young people with the skills necessary for the evolving job market. AI, for instance, is here to stay, so young people must be ready to use it to their advantage and not worry about losing jobs," Jaji tells TRT Afrika.

High expectations

President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is running for a second consecutive term, knows his success in the May 29 vote hinges heavily on whether voters are convinced that the mechanisms in place to reverse the worrying unemployment rate are working.

"Many have matriculated and earned a diploma or a higher degree but cannot find jobs or do not have the means to start a business. While economic growth is essential to reducing unemployment, we cannot wait to provide the work that many of democracy’s children need," Ramaphosa said in February.

South Africans like Jaji insist the government should focus not only on job-seekers but also on employers like him.

"There must be entrepreneurial support. Access to financial aid, such as subsidies or tax breaks, can help nightlife businesses recover and thrive. Three years have gone by since the pandemic struck, but the impact of the shutdown on our businesses has lingered," says Jaji.

On May 29, voters will pick their representatives to the 400-strong National Assembly, which will then choose the country's next president from among the elected members.

The stage is set for the battle that will define how independent South Africa starts its fourth decade. Young citizens are counting on their next president, whoever that might be, to put them on the path to a better future.

➤Click here to follow our WhatsApp channel for more stories