Lebanon's mass displacement crisis could trigger global instability

By Hannan Hussain

Lebanon's humanitarian catastrophe is growing more urgent by the day.

Over the past two weeks, Israel's relentless bombardment has displaced nearly 1.2 million people from their homes, and forced over 175,000 people to flee to neighbouring Syria.

Those numbers are likely to increase as Israel steps up its ground invasion in southern Lebanon, prompting caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to warn of "one of the most dangerous phases" in the country's history.

The crisis strikes at a critical time. Lebanon already faces a crippling economy and poverty has more than tripled over the past decade. Though the United Nations has issued an emergency humanitarian appeal of $426 million, reconstruction costs continue to soar.

As Israel broadens its aerial bombardment campaign, at least 115,000 citizens remain confined to state-run shelters. With fears of protracted displacement growing, can Lebanon endure the humanitarian crisis? And can the Middle East afford it?

There are several reasons why the world needs to get involved and stop the new migrant crisis from spiralling out of control.

Health and food challenges

Lebanon faces a difficult path ahead to manage the displacement crisis.

Israel's expanding attacks are bringing Lebanon's crippled healthcare system under significant stress. There is a dire need to accommodate over 300,000 newly displaced children as Israeli strikes force the closure of dozens of primary healthcare centres.

The crisis will affect Europe too. Closure of the Lebanon-Syria border risks a repeat of 2015, when nearly a million people were forced to flee the war in Syria and journey to the continent.

Israel's attacks have already pushed Lebanon's displacement centres to full capacity, and made it harder to seek refuge in neighbouring Syria. This could test the limits of Europe’s "tough" migration policies and push refugee numbers to soar along a dangerous maritime route.

Scores of children and families depend on such access for consistent nutrition and child protection support. But as they are forced to take refuge in poorly-resourced shelters, international relief agencies face a tough task extending medical assistance to those outside hospitals.

Even if some health facilities are spared, Lebanon's healthcare system remains overburdened with 1.5 million Syrian refugees, and Israeli attacks on healthcare workers make it difficult for first responders to prioritise new displacements.

On the food security front, Lebanon's challenges are growing. Newly displaced people are putting pressure on the country's already strained food supply contingencies, and a three-month long food stockpile is set to expire soon.

Though the UN Food Programme (UFP) has committed to securing $105 million in urgent assistance, there are signs that it may not prove enough. For instance, the aid is unlikely to materialise before the end of the year, making it difficult for UFP and its allies to scale up operations as Israel pushes thousands more to the brink of displacement.

Israel's broadening ground offensive in the south could make it difficult for food supplies to reach all evacuated towns and villages. Unless logistics are secured beyond central and northern Lebanon, critically high hunger levels could swell beyond the 1.1 million mark this year.

In order to stem the humanitarian catastrophe, Europe and regional powers must exert their economic and diplomatic influence on Israel.

Unprepared for influx

The Middle East appears unprepared for Lebanon's displacement crisis.

Consider Syria. It is already facing the world's largest refugee crisis and more than 7 million Syrians remain internally displaced due to the yearslong conflict. As the majority of its own population lacks humanitarian support, how can tens of thousands of newly displaced families seek shelter from neighbouring Lebanon?

Thus, the brewing border crisis threatens political stability in Lebanon. After all, there is considerable public discontent towards the Lebanese caretaker government, which has struggled to address the country's financial crisis or put a floor beneath rampant poverty.

Now as thousands of displaced Lebanese face no guarantees of return to their homes, the government risks waning popularity and offers bleak prospects of reconstruction support.

Fleeing Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon) "was one of the most difficult, life-changing decisions I have ever made," 33-year-old Hanan told UN Women in late September. "I live in constant fear that my home will be destroyed, and I worry about my family members who stayed behind."

Regional patience continues to wear thin as well. Support for refugees has steadily waned in the Middle East due to increased fatigue with protracted displacement. Many Arab states are also reluctant to facilitate a growing number of Lebanese refugees fleeing the war.

International aid agencies also offer limited optimism as they struggle to grapple with simultaneous displacement hotspots in Syria and Gaza. In the absence of adequate facilitation, there is a real risk that families could attempt to seek asylum as far as Europe.

According to the UN's Refugee Agency, new asylum seekers could contemplate the option, underlining the regional spillovers of mass displacement. Timely intervention for de-escalation could help curb these spillovers, and Europe must toughen its stance towards Israel to succeed.

Lessons learned from Israel's war on Gaza suggest Tel Aviv could drastically escalate Lebanon's displacement crisis. Over the past year, Israel has forced multiple evacuations in Gaza, displacing nearly all of the enclave's 2 million people.

AP

Smoke rises following Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon as seen from northern Israel (AP).

Israel's re-evacuation of Gaza's Khan Younis in July was a proof point: the order paved the way for a renewed offensive that threatened protections for nearly 250,000 residents.

A similar dynamic now appears to be taking shape in Lebanon. Extended evacuation orders in southern Lebanon are making way for a wider offensive that could create new waves of forced displacement whenever necessary.

Israel's rising attacks on health facilities, escape routes and aid workers have already deterred urgent humanitarian assistance to affected populations in Lebanon, making it difficult to address a displacement crisis that appears grounded in strategy.

Ultimately, raging attacks, limited regional support and a crippling health system compound Lebanon's options to weather this unprecedented crisis.

The author, Hannan Hussain is a Senior Expert at Initiate Futures, an Islamabad-based policy think tank and author. He was a Fulbright Scholar of international security at the University of Maryland, and has consulted for the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington. Hussain's work has been published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, and the Express Tribune (partner of the International New York Times).

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.

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