ECOWAS exits: Why the regional bloc finds itself on the brink

By Abdulwasiu Hassan

Apprehensions about the 15-nation ECOWAS inexorably losing its hold on a troika of member states amid turmoil in their neighbourhood sadly appear to have come true.

The military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced on January 28 the withdrawal of their countries from the regional bloc.

Capt Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso, Colonel Assimi Goita of Mali and Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani of Niger, all of whom wrested the reins from civilian governments through coups, issued a joint statement accusing ECOWAS of treating their countries unfairly.

In a swift response, ECOWAS said it hadn't received any formal notification from the countries about their exit from the community.

The regional bloc, which had imposed sanctions on the countries after the military overthrew democratically elected governments, said it was working with the new regimes to restore constitutional order.

It also emphasised that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger remain an integral part of the bloc and that everyone was working together to end the impasse.

So, will such iterations erase the writing on the wall that ECOWAS is staring at?

Views about resolving the tangle are as divergent as the supposed reasons for things coming to such a pass.

The implications

What most people agree on is that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger's withdrawal from ECOWAS has severe implications for the region, Nigeria in particular.

"As a regional organisation, ECOWAS is meant to foster unity and promote regional economic development. By the time these three entities make an exit, the organisation will be crippled and divided," Prof Kamilu Fagge of the department of political science at Bayero University in Nigeria's Kano tells TRT Afrika.

"Worse still, if the crisis isn't handled well, the situation could push these countries towards Russia, effectively reviving the old cold war in the region."

Prof Fagge also notes that the withdrawal of the three countries would limit the ability of countries like Nigeria to fight cross-border crimes and arms smuggling without the cooperation of its northern neighbour, Niger.

"Above all, this will cripple socio-economic relations. We have close social and cultural relationships with our neighbours, without which we cannot achieve anything. As the saying goes, your security is as assured as your neighbour's," he explains.

Nigeria, Benin, Cabo Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo remain members of the bloc.

Exit procedure

Article 91 of the Revised Treaty of ECOWAS requires any country wishing to leave the community to give a year's notice.

The article says that such a country will continue to abide by the treaty from the moment the notice is given till the year elapses, after which it would be deemed to have left the regional bloc if it doesn't communicate a change of mind.

“Anyone can decide to go. Now, if they violate, let's say, Article 21, what is going to happen to them? Nothing," says Prof Fagge.

Going by how some leaders of the West African sub-region have been disregarding rulings of the ECOWAS court, it could prove difficult to enforce protocol now.

"Many countries, including Nigeria, have at different times refused to abide by the rules and articles of ECOWAS. You cannot be violating the same principle or the same charter and expect others to abide by it," says Prof Fagge.

Cut in privileges

The ECOWAS protocol allowed West Africans to move within the sub-region through visas on arrival. Experts believe this is one of the privileges affected by three member nations breaking away from the bloc.

A section of analysts sees the move to exit ECOWAS as an attempt to break free of Western influence.

"For the time being, the three countries taking this decision will be affected the most because they are all landlocked territories. Their main sources of trade and relations are the neighbouring countries, and cutting away from them will bring hardship," Prof Fagge tells TRT Afrika.

On the other hand, a country like Nigeria, whose hydroelectricity projects get water from the Niger that passes through its northern neighbour, will feel the pinch if the latter were to dam the river."

Prof Issoufu Yahaya of Abdou Moumouni University in Niamey blames the current crisis on ECOWAS becoming a political bloc, although it was formed to protect the economies of its member countries.

"Some ECOWAS leaders may be furthering the interest of Western powers," he tells TRT Afrika.

"The leadership is supposed to be diplomatic in resolving issues, but there is no diplomacy in the regional bloc now. We don't have an ECOWAS treaty supporting sanctions, which means that what the bloc has done (clamping sanctions on members) is illegal."

The way forward

ECOWAS argues that it imposed sanctions on the three countries to protect the people's electoral rights. On the other hand, the military juntas that seek to break away from the bloc insist they are doing so for their people.

While some believe ECOWAS should engage the breakaway countries in diplomatic talks, others advocate a status quo till the storm blows over.

Prof Fagge says it's Hobson's choice for both sides — reconcile their differences and search for an African solution to an African problem for the benefit of their citizens.

Prof Yahaya suggests leaving ECOWAS alone, saying there is no going back on what has already happened. "I think the best thing is for everyone to go their separate ways because it doesn't look like the regional bloc has a future."

But for West Africans looking forward to a day when the sub-region will become a single market with people, goods and services able to move freely, the withdrawal of the three countries from ECOWAS is a setback they could do without.