The threat of AI-driven cyber warfare is real and it can disrupt the world

By Ersin Cahmutoglu

In the summer of 2017, the world witnessed what was later ascertained as the worst cyberattack ever in history, which crippled private companies and public institutions and caused a staggering financial loss of up to $10-$19 billion globally.

The NotPetya ransomware, as it was later named, was partly an AI-supported cyber operation because a bot network reportedly using AI technology was built to exploit security vulnerabilities in systems.

If such an attack were to happen today, when AI technology is more advanced and effective, it will likely cause much greater financial losses and even disrupt global trade.

No wonder, governments worldwide are taking note of the potential threat AI poses, especially in the hands of hackers and similar unethical groups.

Countries are also strengthening their military and security-oriented activities to protect them against such attacks.

Developments in AI have advanced even further, especially in the last few years. As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread and systems such as large language models (LLM) are used in different domains, states have had to keep up with the fast-evolving sector.

The innovations brought by AI for states have been effective in many domains.

Armies, intelligence services and law enforcement agencies, in particular, carry out more effective operations thanks to artificial intelligence-supported cyber attacks.

Also, the offensive capabilities of cyber armies of developed states can reach higher levels with AI-supported systems.

There have been many examples of this in various parts of the world, but these were mostly within the scope of influence operations and espionage.

In particular, AI-driven damaging and destructive cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructures have not yet occurred.

Can AI define cyber war?

Although the world has not seen the use of AI in conventional military war, there is growing concern globally that such a scenario is just a matter of time.

For example, the United Kingdom claims that Russia and other hostile states are attempting to increase the effectiveness of their cyberattacks using AI technologies and are planning to specifically target critical infrastructure.

Western nations also say that states like Russia and China could use AI systems in future cyber warfare, though the two countries have dismissed the allegations as Western propaganda.

Military experts say that not just China and Russia but all states can conduct AI-powered cyberattacks. The US, the UK and many European states have invested in this domain in recent years.

Over a decade ago, a malicious computer worm jointly created by the US and Israel was used to attack and damage Iran's nuclear programme.

These cyber actors, which can conduct devastating cyberattacks against rival or enemy states through their intelligence services and cyber armies, can conduct operations that will cause even more devastating results with AI-powered cyberattacks.

For example, transportation, energy and communication infrastructures, as well as entire networks of financial institutions and critical government institutions, can be destroyed by such attacks.

Surely, many states are working to take the necessary steps in the face of such a threat. New units or agencies are being set up against AI-powered cyberattacks. At the same time, strategies and policies are being developed to build infrastructure and systems that can struggle with such attacks.

In recent months, the Biden administration has launched a study that determines the measures financial institutions, in particular, should take to ringfence their operations.

In addition, it was noted that AI-supported fraudulent activities such as deepfake and banking scam operations have also increased and that this must be combated.

In this context, the use of AI in cyber warfare indicates a dangerous and worrying situation in terms of both national security and global stability.

Given the evolving scenario, the big question facing the world is: How serious is the danger of AI-enabled cyber warfare and should we be worried?

For the world to be prepared

AI-driven cyber warfare differs from traditional cyber attacks in several important ways, and these differences make it more dangerous.

In addition, AI can potentially make cyber attacks more effective, faster, and more targeted. In this regard, we can say that it provides advantages in certain areas:

Automation: AI can reduce the process of planning and executing attacks that would take days or weeks manually to hours or minutes. For example, a system scan or vulnerability detection that would take days manually can be completed in seconds thanks to AI algorithms.

Undetectable: Malware developed with AI algorithms can better conceal its behaviour to bypass traditional defence systems and thus avoid detection.

Real-time learning: AI-powered cyber attacks can adapt to defensive measures in real time and dynamically exploit vulnerabilities. By analysing the responses of defensive systems, AI can adapt attacks accordingly and increase their effectiveness.

Advanced-level attacks: AI can use big data analytics to launch more sophisticated and targeted attacks, specifically targeting individual or corporate profiles to create more personalised threats. AI can also launch attacks at multiple points simultaneously, allowing for large-scale operations.

Such concerns can be seen as a sign of the integration of AI-driven systems into the battlefield. In this case, AI will no longer be a tool but will become central to war strategies on a global scale.

It should also be noted that no matter how quickly measures are developed against AI-supported attacks, the complexity of the threats has the potential to overwhelm these efforts.

It is necessary to be aware that AI-supported cyber warfare is no longer science fiction but a reality.

The use of these technologies by developed states poses serious threats to both military and civilian infrastructures. Therefore, some states may not be able to eliminate these threats alone.

For that reason alone, strategic cooperation between countries and greater investment in defence technologies may become necessary.

The author, Ersin Cahmutoglu writes on cyber security, cyber intelligence, state-sponsored cyber attacks and information operations. He is pursuing his PhD on Israel's cyber operations at Sakarya University.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.

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