Trump voters focus on inflation, whereas Harris' prioritise democracy

Voters for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump who cast their ballots for Tuesday’s presidential election had vastly different motivations — reflecting a broader national divide on the problems the United States faces.

AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of more than 110,000 voters nationwide, found that the fate of democracy appeared to be a primary driver for Vice President Harris’ supporters. It was a sign that the Democratic nominee’s persistent messaging in her campaign’s closing days accusing Trump of being a fascist may have broken through.

By contrast, Trump’s supporters were largely focused on immigration and inflation — two issues that the former Republican president has been hammering since the start of his campaign. Trump has pledged that tariffs would bring back factory jobs and that greater domestic oil production would flow through the economy and lower prices.

The conflicting views set up a challenge for whoever wins the election to lead the world’s premier economic and military power. Voters saw the qualities of each candidate differently. They were more likely to describe Trump as a strong leader than they were Harris, but she had an edge over him on being seen as having the moral character needed to be president.

Array of issues

About two-thirds of Harris voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor for their votes. No other topic — high prices, abortion policy, the future of free speech in the country or the potential to elect the first female president — was as big a factor for her backers.

Trump voters, meanwhile, were motivated largely by economic issues and immigration. About half of Trump voters said high prices was the biggest issue factoring into their election decisions. About as many said that of the situation at the US-Mexico border. Only about 1 in 4 said the assassination attempts against Trump were the most important factor in their vote. About 1 in 10 said that about the legal cases against him. Those were secondary issues for his voters, though.

Trump’s proposed tariffs on allies and enemies alike as well as mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants resonated with his supporters. About half his backers labelled the economy and jobs as the top issue facing the country, while a third said the top issue was immigration.

Harris’s base, by contrast, was focused on a broader range of issues. About 3 in 10 called the economy a top issue, while about 2 in 10 said abortion and about 1 in 10 named health care or climate change.

Both candidates generated loyalty among their coalitions, a change from four years ago when Trump was ousted from the White House by President Joe Biden.

In 2020, about half of Biden’s backers said their vote for him was cast in opposition to Trump, and about half said their vote was for Biden. This year, roughly two-thirds of Harris voters said they were motivated to vote in favour of her. Only about one-third were voting in opposition to Trump.

Enthusiasm for Trump within his base held steady. Similar to in 2020, about 8 in 10 Trump voters said they cast their ballot in a sign of support for him, rather than to simply oppose his opponent.

Moral character or a strong leader?

The candidates had different strengths in the eyes of voters. Slightly more than half of voters said Harris has the moral character to be president, compared to about 4 in 10 who said that about Trump.

Nearly 6 in 10 said Trump lacked the moral character to be president, a reflection of his criminal convictions, his often inflammatory rhetoric, his sexist remarks and actions and his denial of the 2020 presidential election results that fed into the January 6, 2021, insurrection. Fewer than half said Harris did not possess the morality to be president.

But voters gave Trump an edge on being a strong leader. Slightly more than half of voters described Trump as a strong leader, and slightly fewer than half said the same about Harris.

About 6 in 10 said Harris has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, compared to about half who said that about Trump. But voters were split over whether either candidate could handle a crisis. They were similarly divided over who would bring positive change.